LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets meet at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. LNZ Cherkasy haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Chornomorets (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chornomorets haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — LNZ Cherkasy register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Chornomorets in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 xG and Chornomorets 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Chornomorets attack 1.199 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.182. Data: 0 LNZ Cherkasy games / 30 Chornomorets games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 22% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 53%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Chornomorets 1.89. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 22% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 / Chornomorets 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Chornomorets attack 1.199 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 22% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.85) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.20x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
22%
4.56
25%
4.04
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.58
1.63
Chornomorets xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
4%
23.27
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.63 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. LNZ Cherkasy haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. Chornomorets haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Chornomorets's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chornomorets in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Pre-Season
Chornomorets
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of LNZ Cherkasy's games and 50% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's matches and 100% of Chornomorets's.
Chornomorets cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 xG and Chornomorets 1.63 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Chornomorets attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 22% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 53%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Chornomorets 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Chornomorets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. LNZ Cherkasy managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.