Livyi Bereh 1-1 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karpaty at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Karpaty travel to Arena Livyi Bereg to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karpaty — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Livyi Bereh) versus 1.80 (Karpaty). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Livyi Bereh, 2 for Karpaty and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Karpaty winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Livyi Bereh trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Karpaty trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 50% versus Karpaty 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 0% | Karpaty 100%). Note also that Karpaty surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Livyi Bereh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.79 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.725 / defence 1.003 | Karpaty attack 1.291 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.074. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karpaty have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Livyi Bereh games / 33 Karpaty games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 19% | Draw 32% | Karpaty 49%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Karpaty 2.04. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 50% | Karpaty 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 19% | Draw 32% | Karpaty 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.79 / Karpaty 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.725 / def 1.003 | Karpaty attack 1.291 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Karpaty xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 1 Karpaty.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 19% chance of winning, Karpaty a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
Record (2 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | Karpaty 2W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-D. Karpaty (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
19%
5.26
32%
3.09
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.18
1.39
Karpaty xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.39 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 3D 0L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karpaty carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 2.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Karpaty's attacking output running into Livyi Bereh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Karpaty in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Livyi Bereh or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Karpaty in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Karpaty won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Livyi Bereh's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
From 3 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Karpaty have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-1 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 50%, Karpaty 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Livyi Bereh) and 100% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Karpaty in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 50% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 100% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Karpaty tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh and Karpaty share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh and Karpaty finished level at 1-1 at Arena Livyi Bereg, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.79 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Karpaty attack 1.29 / defence 0.90, drawn from 2/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 19% | Draw 32% | Karpaty 49%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 0%, Karpaty 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Karpaty's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karpaty managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.