Karpaty 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Stadion Ukraina to face Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karpaty have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Karpaty against 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Karpaty goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Karpaty 50% | Vorskla Poltava 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 75% | Vorskla Poltava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.22 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.081 / defence 1.128 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.104 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.201. Data: 4 Karpaty games / 33 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 31% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 44%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Vorskla Poltava 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Karpaty 50% | Vorskla Poltava 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 31% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Karpaty 1.22 / Vorskla Poltava 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.081 / def 1.128 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.104 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Vorskla Poltava xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava?
Karpaty 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 31% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava in?
Karpaty (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 1.08x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (1.10x) against Karpaty's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 4/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
31%
3.23
25%
3.93
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.71
1.50
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.50 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karpaty's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karpaty heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karpaty are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava in 0%.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Karpaty or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karpaty
2
Draws
0
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 0, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-0 Karpaty.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Karpaty) and 0% (Vorskla Poltava) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Karpaty and 50% for Vorskla Poltava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karpaty keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 50%; Vorskla Poltava in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karpaty's recent matches and 0% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Karpaty's matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.22 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.50 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Vorskla Poltava attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 31% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 44%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 75%, Vorskla Poltava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.