Karpaty 1-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Karpaty at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Ukraina Stadium to take on Karpaty. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ukraina Stadium, Karpaty have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Karpaty are significantly better at Ukraina Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 1W 1D 7L from 9 Premier League matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Karpaty are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.66 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.44). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Karpaty trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 44% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karpaty 67% and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 44% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.54 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.236 / defence 1.205 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.672 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.298. Data: 38 Karpaty games / 8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 48% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.00. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karpaty as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Karpaty 60% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 48% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Karpaty 1.54 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.236 / def 1.205 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.672 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Karpaty 1 - 3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 48% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Karpaty (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karpaty's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.71
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.59
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.05 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karpaty's recent record stands at 2W 5D 2L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 7L across 9 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karpaty by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Karpaty have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.22 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karpaty have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Karpaty's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 0.75 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karpaty
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 75%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karpaty) and 25% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Karpaty's recent matches and 25% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 25% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karpaty.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Karpaty 1-3 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.54 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.24 / defence 1.21 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 48% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 44%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.