Kryvbas KR 2-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne meet at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Kryvbas KR's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 1 for Veres Rivne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 31% versus Veres Rivne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 36% | Veres Rivne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.76 xG and Veres Rivne 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.256 / defence 0.987 | Veres Rivne attack 0.877 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.154. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Kryvbas KR games / 35 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 55% | Draw 24% | Veres Rivne 21%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Veres Rivne 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 30% | Veres Rivne 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 55% | Draw 24% | Veres Rivne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.76 / Veres Rivne 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.256 / def 0.987 | Veres Rivne attack 0.877 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 55% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Record (2 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.88x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.10
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
28.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.00 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 15W 7D 14L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 19L across 36 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 9W 2D 5L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.25 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 15W 7D 14L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Veres Rivne away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.81 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won 0-3 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 5, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Veres Rivne 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 31%, Veres Rivne 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Kryvbas KR) and 44% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 31% of games; Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 44% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 44% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Veres Rivne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Veres Rivne 2-1 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.76 xG and Veres Rivne 1.00 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 55% | Draw 24% | Veres Rivne 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 36%, Veres Rivne 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (36 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.