Dynamo Kyiv 3-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Oleksandria at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 8 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oleksandria stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dynamo Kyiv at 2.20 PPG versus Oleksandria's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Dynamo Kyiv hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for Oleksandria and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2024, ended Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Oleksandria — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Dynamo Kyiv and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 58% versus Oleksandria 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 58% | Oleksandria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.43 xG and Oleksandria 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.419 / defence 0.939 | Oleksandria attack 1.017 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.022. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack rating of 1.419 — their 1.43 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Oleksandria bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dynamo Kyiv's projected output down. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 45 games and Oleksandria's last 45.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 45% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 23%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.21 | Draw 3.16 | Oleksandria 4.31. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Dynamo Kyiv 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 70% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 45% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.43 / Oleksandria 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.419 / def 0.939 | Oleksandria attack 1.017 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Oleksandria xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv 3 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 45% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.42x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 45 games and Oleksandria's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.16
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Oleksandria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.98 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 33W 7D 5L from 45 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 12L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 15W 3D 2L from their last 20 home games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across their last 20 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.22 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Oleksandria in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 33W 7D 5L in their last 45 games (2.36 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 19W 14D 12L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Oleksandria away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.40 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Oleksandria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 45%, Oleksandria 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 50% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Oleksandria in 45%; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 45% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 60% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 3-0 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.43 xG and Oleksandria 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oleksandria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.42 / defence 0.94 against Oleksandria attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 45% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 23%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 58%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.