Dynamo Kyiv 3-2 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kudrivka travel to Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho to take on Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Kudrivka — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kudrivka have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Dynamo Kyiv are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for Kudrivka and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Kudrivka — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kudrivka trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo Kyiv 64% and Kudrivka 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 64% | Kudrivka 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 xG and Kudrivka 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.268 / defence 0.868 | Kudrivka attack 0.634 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.243. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 1.70 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 59 games and Kudrivka's last 29.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 61% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 14%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.65 | Draw 3.86 | Kudrivka 7.41. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 50% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 61% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 / Kudrivka 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.268 / def 0.868 | Kudrivka attack 0.634 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Kudrivka xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka?
Dynamo Kyiv 3 - 2 Kudrivka.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 61% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.27x the league average against Kudrivka's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 59 games and Kudrivka's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.86
14%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.38
0.68
Kudrivka xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
7.41
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
40.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.68 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 31 games, going 16W 8D 7L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 1.00 PPG from 31 outings (8W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across their last 15 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 15 away games (2W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.03 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Current Season
Kudrivka
Current Season
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs Kudrivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Current Season
Kudrivka
Current Season
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 16W 8D 7L in their last 31 games (1.81 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Kudrivka away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.80 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Kudrivka specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, Kudrivka have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 60%, Kudrivka 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 27% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Kudrivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 40% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 27% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Kudrivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 73% of Kudrivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Kudrivka 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Kudrivka 3-2 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 xG and Kudrivka 0.68 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kudrivka outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.27 / defence 0.87 against Kudrivka attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 61% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 14%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 64%, Kudrivka 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kudrivka's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.