Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Zorya Luhansk in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zorya Luhansk arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zorya Luhansk in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chornomorets 0W, Zorya Luhansk 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 61% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 72% | Zorya Luhansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.26 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.947 / defence 1.426 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.113 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chornomorets games / 18 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 53%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Zorya Luhansk 1.89. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Zorya Luhansk 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Chornomorets 1.26 / Zorya Luhansk 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.947 / def 1.426 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.113 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Zorya Luhansk xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 25% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Zorya Luhansk 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Zorya Luhansk's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.11x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
25%
4.04
22%
4.53
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
3.20
1.94
Zorya Luhansk xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
4%
28.05
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.94 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 4L across 18 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zorya Luhansk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 0-4 on 18 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
6
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Zorya Luhansk have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chornomorets, 78% for Zorya Luhansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Chornomorets and 67% for Zorya Luhansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chornomorets's games and 78% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chornomorets's matches and 67% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 23, as Chornomorets and Zorya Luhansk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.26 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.94 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.95 / defence 1.43 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 25% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 53%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 72%, Zorya Luhansk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.