Chornomorets 4-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 games at Arena L'viv this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ruh Lviv — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 58% versus Ruh Lviv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 67% | Ruh Lviv 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.89 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / defence 1.389 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.664 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.185. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Chornomorets games / 12 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 27% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 38%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Ruh Lviv 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 50% | Ruh Lviv 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 27% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Chornomorets 0.89 / Ruh Lviv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / def 1.389 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.664 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ruh Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Chornomorets 4 - 3 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 27% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.75) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
27%
3.69
35%
2.86
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.98
1.09
Ruh Lviv xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.09 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 1W 5D 6L from 12 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.50 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chornomorets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
2
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Ruh Lviv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Chornomorets and 17% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 17% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Ruh Lviv 4-3 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.89 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.09 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Chornomorets beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.75 / defence 1.39 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 27% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 38%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Chornomorets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 67%, Ruh Lviv 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Chornomorets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.