Yeni Malatyaspor 2-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Altay at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Altay travel to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to take on Yeni Malatyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 1W 0D 4L at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Altay — All Games: 5W 0D 4L from 9 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.56. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Altay's 1.67 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Yeni Malatyaspor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Altay trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 22% versus Altay 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Altay 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.56 xG and Altay 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.867 / defence 1.600 | Altay attack 1.075 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.171. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 9 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 22% | Altay 48%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Altay 2.08. Altay hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Altay are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 40% | Altay 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 22% | Altay 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.56 / Altay 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.867 / def 1.600 | Altay attack 1.075 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Altay (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Altay xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay?
Yeni Malatyaspor 2 - 1 Altay.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Altay a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Altay (all comps): 5W-0D-4L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Altay's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
30%
3.33
22%
4.65
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.57
2.01
Altay xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
4%
24.94
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 2.01 for Altay, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Yeni Malatyaspor have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 6L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay's form line: 5W 0D 4L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Altay are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Altay in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Altay away?
Altay's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Altay away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Altay been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Altay in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 1, Altay have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Altay 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 25%, Altay 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 100% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 100% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 100% of Altay's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Altay tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Altay in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yeni Malatyaspor defy the odds to beat Altay 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yeni Malatyaspor beat Altay 2-1 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.56 xG and Altay 2.01 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Altay landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.60 against Altay attack 1.07 / defence 1.44, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 30% | Draw 22% | Altay 48%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Yeni Malatyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 33%, Altay 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Altay's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Altay arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Yeni Malatyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Altay (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.