Trabzonspor 2-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Trabzonspor welcome Pendikspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Pendikspor have recorded 0W 4D 2L from 6 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pendikspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.13 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.67). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pendikspor in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Pendikspor in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 50% and Pendikspor 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 67% | Pendikspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.95 xG and Pendikspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.277 / defence 0.858 | Pendikspor attack 0.702 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.287. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Trabzonspor games / 6 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.61 | Draw 3.70 | Pendikspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Trabzonspor 60% | Pendikspor 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Trabzonspor 1.95 / Pendikspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.277 / def 0.858 | Pendikspor attack 0.702 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pendikspor xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 62% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trabzonspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Pendikspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.28x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
62%
1.61
27%
3.73
11%
9.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.73
0.78
Pendikspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
9.01
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
63.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.78 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 0D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pendikspor sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Pendikspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pendikspor have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 0.83 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Pendikspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Pendikspor 0-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Pendikspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 33%, Pendikspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trabzonspor) and 33% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Pendikspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Pendikspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 67% of Pendikspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 33% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Pendikspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Pendikspor 2-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.95 xG and Pendikspor 0.78 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.28 / defence 0.86 against Pendikspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 11%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 67%, Pendikspor 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.