Trabzonspor 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 13 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 1.80 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Konyaspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 63% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.03 xG and Konyaspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.882 / defence 0.720 | Konyaspor attack 0.970 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.336. Konyaspor's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Trabzonspor games / 50 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Trabzonspor 60% | Konyaspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Trabzonspor 1.03 / Konyaspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.882 / def 0.720 | Konyaspor attack 0.970 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Konyaspor xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 37% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Trabzonspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.20
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
1.96
0.93
Konyaspor xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.93 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 49 games, going 29W 15D 5L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.73 PPG from 49 outings (24W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.08 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 15W 9D 0L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.57 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Konyaspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 29W 15D 5L in their last 49 games (2.08 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.25 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 58%, Konyaspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 58% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Trabzonspor's games and 71% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 58% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 13, as Trabzonspor and Konyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.03 xG and Konyaspor 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.72 against Konyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 32%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.08 PPG, Konyaspor 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.