Trabzonspor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Trabzonspor welcome Hatayspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.40 PPG, Hatayspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 2 for Hatayspor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Hatayspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Hatayspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 59% | Hatayspor 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.45 xG and Hatayspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.295 | Hatayspor attack 0.680 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.173. Data: 59 Trabzonspor games / 60 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 70% | Hatayspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Trabzonspor 1.45 / Hatayspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.006 / def 1.295 | Hatayspor attack 0.680 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hatayspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 44% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trabzonspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.22
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.03
Hatayspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.03 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 59 games, going 27W 10D 22L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.86 PPG from 59 outings (12W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 18W 5D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (4W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.85 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 22L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 12W 15D 32L in their last 59 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.03 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 48%, Hatayspor 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Trabzonspor and 66% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Hatayspor in 66%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 28% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Trabzonspor's matches and 66% of Hatayspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.45 xG and Hatayspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Hatayspor attack 0.68 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 44% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 25%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 59%, Hatayspor 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.