Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Fatih Karagümrük, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 65% versus Fatih Karagümrük 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.264 / defence 1.051 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.802 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Trabzonspor games / 23 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Fatih Karagümrük 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Trabzonspor 2.46 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.264 / def 1.051 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.802 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor 3 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 66% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (7 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.26x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.52
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.52
1.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
9%
11.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
1%
94.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.07 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 23 games, going 14W 6D 3L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.57 PPG from 23 outings (3W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.36 points per game from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.87 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 14W 6D 3L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 16L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 64%, Fatih Karagümrük 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 73% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Trabzonspor's matches and 73% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 59/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.