Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Başakşehir have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Başakşehir edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Jun 2023, ended Trabzonspor 1–3 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Başakşehir 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 63% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.39 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.955 / defence 0.830 | Başakşehir attack 0.738 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.286. Başakşehir's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 51 games and Başakşehir's last 52.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.98 | Draw 3.47 | Başakşehir 4.85. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.39 / Başakşehir 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.955 / def 0.830 | Başakşehir attack 0.738 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Başakşehir xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 51% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.74x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 51 games and Başakşehir's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.47
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.18
0.79
Başakşehir xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.79 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 8D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.51 PPG from 51 outings (22W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.51 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 17W 4D 4L across their last 25 home games, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.33 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 8D 18L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Başakşehir 0-3 Trabzonspor on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 6, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 40%, Başakşehir 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 36% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Başakşehir in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 40% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 64% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 18, as Trabzonspor and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.39 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Başakşehir attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 63%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.