Sivasspor 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 7D 0L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 1.60 (Fenerbahçe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 59% and Fenerbahçe 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 46% | Fenerbahçe 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.33 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.951 / defence 0.973 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.965 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.098. Fenerbahçe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sivasspor games / 22 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 43% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 28%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sivasspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 43% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sivasspor 1.33 / Fenerbahçe 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.951 / def 0.973 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.965 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fenerbahçe xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 43% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.52
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Fenerbahçe xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.03 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 7W 9D 6L from 22 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 6L across 22 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.36 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 3W 7D 1L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.59 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 10W 6D 6L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
3
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sivasspor) and 46% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sivasspor's games and 73% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sivasspor's recent games and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.33 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 43% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 28%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Fenerbahçe 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.36 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.