Samsunspor 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Samsunspor, 0.90 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Konyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Konyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.55 xG and Konyaspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.891 / defence 0.984 | Konyaspor attack 1.042 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.307. Data: 41 Samsunspor games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 40% | Konyaspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Samsunspor 1.55 / Konyaspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.891 / def 0.984 | Konyaspor attack 1.042 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Samsunspor 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 41% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Samsunspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.04x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
Konyaspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.34 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 10W 14D 17L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.07 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Konyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Samsunspor) and 45% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Konyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 55% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Samsunspor's recent games and 45% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Samsunspor 0-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.55 xG and Konyaspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Konyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.20 PPG, Konyaspor 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.