Samsunspor 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Antalyaspor meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Samsunspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Antalyaspor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 44% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Antalyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Antalyaspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.079 / defence 0.954 | Antalyaspor attack 0.744 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.300. Data: 39 Samsunspor games / 40 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Antalyaspor 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Samsunspor 1.45 / Antalyaspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.079 / def 0.954 | Antalyaspor attack 0.744 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 48% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Samsunspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.74x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.35
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.37
0.92
Antalyaspor xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.92 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 21W 8D 10L from 39 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 18L across 39 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Samsunspor by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 12W 2D 5L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 3W 4D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
0
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Samsunspor) and 47% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Samsunspor's recent games and 47% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 1-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Antalyaspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 22%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.