Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Sivasspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.20 PPG, Sivasspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Sivasspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Rizespor's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Sivasspor winning.
It is worth noting that Sivasspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 49% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 2.00 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.984 / defence 1.128 | Sivasspor attack 0.830 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.217. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Rizespor games / 66 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Sivasspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 70% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Rizespor 2.00 / Sivasspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.984 / def 1.128 | Sivasspor attack 0.830 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Sivasspor part of?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 57% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.45
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.13
1.14
Sivasspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
35.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.14 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 24W 11D 30L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 22W 17D 26L from 65 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.28 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.75 PPG from 32 outings (16W 8D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 5D 18L from 32 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 24W 11D 30L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Sivasspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.75 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rizespor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rizespor) and 59% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games; Sivasspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rizespor's recent games and 59% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 2.00 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Sivasspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.