Rizespor 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games (1.57 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 1W 2D 0L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
Samsunspor (all games): 0W 1D 5L across 6 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.17 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Rizespor. A 1.40 PPG lead over Samsunspor (1.57 vs 0.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 50% versus Samsunspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 50% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.39 xG and Samsunspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.692 / defence 0.863 | Samsunspor attack 0.863 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.264. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Rizespor games / 6 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Samsunspor 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 33% | Samsunspor 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 1.39 / Samsunspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.692 / def 0.863 | Samsunspor attack 0.863 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 44% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.69) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.86x) against Rizespor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
44%
2.30
35%
2.87
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Samsunspor xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.94 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.67 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Rizespor 4-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rizespor and 67% for Samsunspor.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Samsunspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rizespor's recent games and 67% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.39 xG and Samsunspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.69 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 50%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.