Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 5W 1D 4L at — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Kasımpaşa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.07 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.699 / defence 1.276 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.029 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Rizespor games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 48%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 2.08. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Rizespor 1.07 / Kasımpaşa 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.699 / def 1.276 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.029 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 27 November 2026.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 26% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.70x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
26%
3.78
25%
3.92
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.61
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.59
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.54 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 12D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 11W 15D 16L from 42 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.21 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.35 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Kasımpaşa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Rizespor) and 60% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 65% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Rizespor's matches and 60% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.