Rizespor 3-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Rizespor take on Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Başakşehir travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 1L across 6 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Rizespor's 17% and Başakşehir's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rizespor, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rizespor 38% | Başakşehir 23%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rizespor 38% | Başakşehir 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.79 xG and Başakşehir 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.623 / defence 0.822 | Başakşehir attack 0.646 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.208. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Rizespor games / 49 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.94 | Draw 2.44 | Başakşehir 4.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.43. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.43 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Başakşehir's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 17% | Başakşehir 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 27% | xG Rizespor 0.79 / Başakşehir 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.623 / def 0.822 | Başakşehir attack 0.646 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Başakşehir xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Rizespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 34% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 25% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.62x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
41%
2.44
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.43
0.64
Başakşehir xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.0 | 15.4 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.64 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.92 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 23%.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Rizespor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.83 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rizespor 17% BTTS, Başakşehir 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rizespor and 17% for Başakşehir.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Başakşehir in 50%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Rizespor's recent matches and 0% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rizespor's recent games and 17% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Başakşehir 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Başakşehir 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.79 xG and Başakşehir 0.64 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.62 / defence 0.82 against Başakşehir attack 0.65 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 41% | Başakşehir 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 38%, Başakşehir 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.