Rizespor 1-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 1D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Rizespor, 1.80 for Adana Demirspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Adana Demirspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Adana Demirspor 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.31 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.947 / defence 1.185 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.088. Data: 23 Rizespor games / 23 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 26% | Adana Demirspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Adana Demirspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights