Pendikspor 3-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pendikspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pendikspor stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Pendikspor) versus 1.10 (Kasımpaşa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pendikspor have won 0, Kasımpaşa 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Pendikspor 1–1 Kasımpaşa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 67% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.869 / defence 1.105 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.105 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.240. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 21 games and Kasımpaşa's last 57.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.77 | Draw 3.53 | Kasımpaşa 2.81. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pendikspor 36% and Kasımpaşa 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Pendikspor 1.52 / Kasımpaşa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.869 / def 1.105 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.105 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Pendikspor 3 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 36% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 21 games and Kasımpaşa's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.51 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 4W 7D 10L from 21 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 8L across 21 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pendikspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.71 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Pendikspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.90 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2024: Pendikspor 3-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pendikspor) and 60% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Kasımpaşa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pendikspor's games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pendikspor's recent games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 60% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pendikspor edge out Kasımpaşa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pendikspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.