Ümraniyespor 1-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ümraniyespor host Başakşehir at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Ümraniyespor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 62% versus Başakşehir 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 54% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.12 xG and Başakşehir 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.849 / defence 1.155 | Başakşehir attack 1.002 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.414. Data: 13 Ümraniyespor games / 51 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 26% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 49%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 2.04. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 57% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 23 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 26% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.12 / Başakşehir 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.849 / def 1.155 | Başakşehir attack 1.002 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Başakşehir xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 December 2022 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir?
Ümraniyespor 1 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ümraniyespor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.86
25%
3.98
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.64
Başakşehir xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
19.85
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.64 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Ümraniyespor have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 1W 4D 8L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 7W 3D 3L from 13 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ümraniyespor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ümraniyespor have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Başakşehir in 23%.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.80 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ümraniyespor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
1
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2023, when Başakşehir 1-1 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 80%, Başakşehir 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ümraniyespor and 40% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 40%; Başakşehir in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Ümraniyespor's games and 40% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 40% of Başakşehir's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Ümraniyespor 1-3 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.12 xG and Başakşehir 1.64 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 26% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 49%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 54%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.