Konyaspor vs Çorum FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Çorum FK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Çorum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Çorum FK are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Çorum FK — key trading statistics (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 20% versus Çorum FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 30% | Çorum FK 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.30 xG and Çorum FK 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Çorum FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 10 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 24% | Çorum FK 46%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Çorum FK 2.17. Çorum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Çorum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 20% | Çorum FK 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 24% | Çorum FK 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Konyaspor 1.30 / Çorum FK 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Çorum FK attack 1.327 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Çorum FK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Çorum FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Çorum FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Çorum FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Konyaspor and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Çorum FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (1.33x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.14
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.95
1.65
Çorum FK xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.19
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.65 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Çorum FK, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 4L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Çorum FK by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Çorum FK's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Çorum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 2.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Çorum FK in 60%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Çorum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Çorum FK away?
Çorum FK's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Çorum FK away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 17%, Çorum FK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Konyaspor) and 83% (Çorum FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Konyaspor's matches and 83% of Çorum FK's.
Do Konyaspor and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.