Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.40 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Eyüpspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Eyüpspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Eyüpspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.047 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Eyüpspor 60%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights