Konyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Konyaspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Konyaspor's games and 70% of Beşiktaş's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Beşiktaş, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Konyaspor 0–2 Beşiktaş — a Beşiktaş win.
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.954 / defence 1.077 | Beşiktaş attack 1.134 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.178. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Konyaspor's projected output down. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 64 games and Beşiktaş's last 63.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.34 | Draw 3.74 | Beşiktaş 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Konyaspor 1.15 / Beşiktaş 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.954 / def 1.077 | Beşiktaş attack 1.134 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.13x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 64 games and Beşiktaş's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.74
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 20D 27L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 28W 16D 19L from 63 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 9W 10D 11L from their last 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.44 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 28W 16D 19L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.30 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 83% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 0.73, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.