Kayserispor 1-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 40%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Sivasspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kayserispor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kayserispor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sivasspor — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 58% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Sivasspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.53 xG and Sivasspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.989 / defence 1.081 | Sivasspor attack 0.995 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.220. Data: 38 Kayserispor games / 39 Sivasspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 40% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Sivasspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 40% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Kayserispor 1.53 / Sivasspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.989 / def 1.081 | Sivasspor attack 0.995 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 40% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kayserispor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 3W.
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.42
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.31
Sivasspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.31 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. Kayserispor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sivasspor's form line: 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.18 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Pre-Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Sivasspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.37 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
1
Draws
5
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 58%, Sivasspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kayserispor) and 58% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Sivasspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Kayserispor's games and 63% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kayserispor's recent games and 58% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.53 xG and Sivasspor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 40% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 31%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Sivasspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.18 PPG, Sivasspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.