Kayserispor 2-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Konyaspor meet at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Kayserispor, 1.60 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kayserispor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 61% versus Konyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 54% | Konyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.77 xG and Konyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.092 / defence 1.037 | Konyaspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.189. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Kayserispor games / 28 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.85. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Kayserispor 1.77 / Konyaspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.092 / def 1.037 | Konyaspor attack 0.976 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Konyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kayserispor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.09) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.98x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.15
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.98
1.20
Konyaspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.20 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 8D 10L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kayserispor's home form reads 9W 2D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.57 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 games (1.36 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.23 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
4
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Konyaspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kayserispor) and 54% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Konyaspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 62% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kayserispor's recent games and 54% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kayserispor 2-3 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.77 xG and Konyaspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.34, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 26%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 54%, Konyaspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.