Kayserispor 1-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Hatayspor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kayserispor at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kayserispor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hatayspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Kayserispor have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Hatayspor managing 1 and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Kayserispor 2–1 Hatayspor — a Kayserispor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Kayserispor and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Hatayspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 58% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Hatayspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.949 / defence 1.030 | Hatayspor attack 0.605 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.167. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.605 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 64 games and Hatayspor's last 64.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 53% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.89 | Draw 3.27 | Hatayspor 6.07. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Kayserispor 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 60% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 53% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Hatayspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.949 / def 1.030 | Hatayspor attack 0.605 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Hatayspor xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Hatayspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 53% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kayserispor and Hatayspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Kayserispor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.95) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.60x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 64 games and Hatayspor's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.27
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.20
0.73
Hatayspor xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Hatayspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.73 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 25W 13D 26L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Hatayspor's form line: 12W 16D 36L from 64 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Kayserispor are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 32 home games (15W 7D 10L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 4W 5D 23L from their last 32 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.80 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Hatayspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Hatayspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 25W 13D 26L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 12W 16D 36L in their last 64 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Hatayspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.62 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Kayserispor and Hatayspor, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won Kayserispor 5-0 Hatayspor on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Kayserispor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Hatayspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 6, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Hatayspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2025: Kayserispor 5-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 47%, Hatayspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kayserispor) and 59% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hatayspor in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Hatayspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Hatayspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 25% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Hatayspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Kayserispor's matches and 59% of Hatayspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Hatayspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 64% of Hatayspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, as Kayserispor and Hatayspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Hatayspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Hatayspor attack 0.60 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 53% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 16%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 58%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.