Kayserispor 0-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 36%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kayserispor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's home record at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kayserispor are significantly better at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Kayserispor's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Beşiktaş 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 57% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.914 / defence 1.064 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.166. Data: 60 Kayserispor games / 60 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Beşiktaş 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.914 / def 1.064 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 12 February 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Kayserispor 0 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kayserispor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 5W.
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.17x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.47
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 12D 25L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.95 PPG from 60 outings (35W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.70 points per game from 30 outings (15W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 23W 12D 25L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 35W 12D 13L in their last 60 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.60 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 24 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
1
Draws
9
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 47%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kayserispor) and 60% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Kayserispor's matches and 60% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kayserispor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Beşiktaş finished level at 0-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 57%, Beşiktaş 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.