Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 11 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Kayserispor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Kayserispor, 1.50 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Antalyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 56% versus Antalyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 54% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 2.10 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.183 / defence 0.840 | Antalyaspor attack 1.124 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.222. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Kayserispor games / 43 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 59% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Antalyaspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 59% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Kayserispor 2.10 / Antalyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.183 / def 0.840 | Antalyaspor attack 1.124 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 59% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.18) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.12x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.84
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.25
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
40.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.15 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 11D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.51 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.90 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Antalyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kayserispor) and 52% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 48% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kayserispor's recent games and 52% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 2.10 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against Antalyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 59% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 20%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 54%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.23 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.