Kasımpaşa 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Hatayspor.

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Analysis & Preview

Hatayspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Kasımpaşa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 0.80 PPG, Hatayspor 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Hatayspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 0–0 Hatayspor — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Hatayspor in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Hatayspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 62% | Hatayspor 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.66 xG and Hatayspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.133 / defence 1.512 | Hatayspor attack 0.693 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.235. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.512 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hatayspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 56 games and Hatayspor's last 56.

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.61 | Hatayspor 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 80% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 40% (last 10 away games).

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