Kasımpaşa 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.40 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Beşiktaş 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2024, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Beşiktaş 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Beşiktaş 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG and Beşiktaş 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.023 / defence 1.131 | Beşiktaş attack 0.916 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Data: 73 Kasımpaşa games / 73 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Beşiktaş 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.41 / Beşiktaş 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.023 / def 1.131 | Beşiktaş attack 0.916 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.02) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.39
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.29
Beşiktaş xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.29 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 73 games, going 27W 15D 31L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.84 PPG from 73 outings (39W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 15W 7D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.58 points per game from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.77 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 27W 15D 31L in their last 73 games (1.32 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 39W 17D 17L in their last 73 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.44 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Beşiktaş 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Kasımpaşa) and 53% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG and Beşiktaş 1.29 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Beşiktaş attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 33%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Beşiktaş 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.