Kasımpaşa 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Ankaragücü (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ankaragücü have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 36% versus Ankaragücü 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 36% | Ankaragücü 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.44 xG and Ankaragücü 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.848 / defence 1.305 | Ankaragücü attack 0.792 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.325. Data: 50 Kasımpaşa games / 11 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 36%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Ankaragücü 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Ankaragücü 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.44 / Ankaragücü 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.848 / def 1.305 | Ankaragücü attack 0.792 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ankaragücü xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.85) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ankaragücü's attack (0.79x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 50/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.56
25%
3.97
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.81
1.37
Ankaragücü xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.37 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 2D 5L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.00 for Ankaragücü. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 73%.
Defensively: Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Ankaragücü away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.20 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 40%, Ankaragücü 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Kasımpaşa) and 60% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Kasımpaşa's games and 80% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 60% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Ankaragücü finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.44 xG and Ankaragücü 1.37 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against Ankaragücü attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 36%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 36%, Ankaragücü 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.