Hatayspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Hatayspor welcome Trabzonspor to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hatayspor at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 51% versus Trabzonspor 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 57% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.977 / defence 1.044 | Trabzonspor attack 1.056 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.341. Data: 35 Hatayspor games / 35 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Hatayspor 1.11 / Trabzonspor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.977 / def 1.044 | Trabzonspor attack 1.056 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Trabzonspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 27% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hatayspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.98) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
27%
3.70
29%
3.49
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.48
Trabzonspor xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
16.20
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.48 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 14W 7D 14L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 22W 11D 2L from 35 games, 2.20 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 4D 2L from 17 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.86 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 22W 11D 2L in their last 35 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.82 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hatayspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 59%, Trabzonspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hatayspor and 59% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hatayspor's games and 65% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hatayspor's matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, as Hatayspor and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.11 xG and Trabzonspor 1.48 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 57%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.