Hatayspor 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Kayserispor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.60 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Kayserispor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kayserispor have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 56% versus Kayserispor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Kayserispor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.14 xG and Kayserispor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.083 | Kayserispor attack 0.813 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.310. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Hatayspor games / 46 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 35% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 36%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 40% | Kayserispor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 35% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Hatayspor 1.14 / Kayserispor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.794 / def 1.083 | Kayserispor attack 0.813 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Kayserispor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Hatayspor 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Hatayspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 35% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hatayspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kayserispor?
Record (6 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 4W.
What form are Hatayspor and Kayserispor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.81x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.37
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.29
1.15
Kayserispor xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.15 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor come into this having played 46 games, going 9W 17D 20L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.09 PPG from 46 outings (11W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.09 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hatayspor's home form reads 7W 9D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 9W 17D 20L in their last 46 games (0.96 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.30 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kayserispor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won 5-0 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
6
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Kayserispor have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Kayserispor 5-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 65%, Kayserispor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hatayspor) and 56% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Kayserispor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Kayserispor's.
Do Hatayspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Hatayspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Hatayspor 0-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.14 xG and Kayserispor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Kayserispor attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 35% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 36%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Kayserispor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kayserispor's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.96 PPG, Kayserispor 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.