Giresunspor 1-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çotanak Stadyumu plays host to Giresunspor versus Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 23 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Giresunspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresunspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Giresunspor against 1.40 for Alanyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Giresunspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 36% versus Alanyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 27% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.12 xG and Alanyaspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.777 / defence 1.201 | Alanyaspor attack 1.072 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.088. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Giresunspor games / 22 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Alanyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Giresunspor 40% | Alanyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Giresunspor 1.12 / Alanyaspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.777 / def 1.201 | Alanyaspor attack 1.072 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Alanyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Giresunspor 1 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 29% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Giresunspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Alanyaspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.78) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.07x) against Giresunspor's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.51
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.40
Alanyaspor xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.40 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 7W 5D 10L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Giresunspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.73 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Giresunspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
2
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Alanyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Giresunspor 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 36%, Alanyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Giresunspor) and 46% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 46% of games; Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 46% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Giresunspor's recent games and 46% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Giresunspor 1-3 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.12 xG and Alanyaspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 29% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 42%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 27%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.