Gaziantep FK 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Kalyon Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.50 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Samsunspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 52% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.791 / defence 1.122 | Samsunspor attack 0.792 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Gaziantep FK games / 25 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 40% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Samsunspor 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 40% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.33 / Samsunspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.791 / def 1.122 | Samsunspor attack 0.792 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Samsunspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 40% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.79) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.79x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 60/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.00
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
Samsunspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.04 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 12L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.16 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Samsunspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.08 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Samsunspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gaziantep FK) and 42% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gaziantep FK's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 42% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Samsunspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 40% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 26%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 52%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.08 PPG, Samsunspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.