Gaziantep FK 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gaziantep FK at Kalyon Stadyumu this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Gaziantep FK 2W, Fatih Karagümrük 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Fatih Karagümrük 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 58% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.788 / defence 1.032 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.800 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Gaziantep FK games / 72 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.43 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.788 / def 1.032 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.800 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 44% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.80x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.29
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.03 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 16W 15D 40L from 71 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 22W 22D 27L across 71 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.24 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 8W 10D 17L from 35 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 8W 11D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.66 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 15D 40L in their last 71 games (0.89 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 22W 22D 27L in their last 71 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.97 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 0-3 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 49%, Fatih Karagümrük 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Gaziantep FK) and 57% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 34% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 58%, Fatih Karagümrük 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 0.89 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.