Göztepe vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Beşiktaş travel to to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Göztepe have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 46% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 43% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.18 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.904 / defence 0.981 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Göztepe games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 34%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Göztepe 1.18 / Beşiktaş 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.904 / def 0.981 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 January 2027.
What competition is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
38%
2.67
28%
3.53
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.30
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.11 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 14D 9L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.78 PPG from 37 outings (19W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.51 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 8W 7D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Göztepe's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.72 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 44%, Beşiktaş 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Göztepe) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%; Göztepe have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Göztepe's recent matches and 44% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Göztepe's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.