Göztepe 4-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 38%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Antalyaspor travel to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Göztepe have posted 2W 2D 6L at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Antalyaspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Göztepe, 0 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 32% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 68% and Antalyaspor 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 47% | Antalyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.00 xG and Antalyaspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.651 / defence 1.144 | Antalyaspor attack 0.637 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.101. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Göztepe games / 19 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Antalyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Antalyaspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Göztepe 1.00 / Antalyaspor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.651 / def 1.144 | Antalyaspor attack 0.637 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Antalyaspor xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Göztepe 4 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 38% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Göztepe and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.95
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Göztepe xG
Total xG
1.80
0.80
Antalyaspor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.80 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Göztepe have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 6D 10L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 0.79 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.89 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 44%, Antalyaspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Göztepe and 33% for Antalyaspor.
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 56% of games; Antalyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Göztepe's recent matches and 33% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Göztepe's recent games and 33% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 4-0 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.00 xG and Antalyaspor 0.80 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.65 / defence 1.14 against Antalyaspor attack 0.64 / defence 1.33, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 38% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 47%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 0.79 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.