Fenerbahçe 5-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe and Rizespor meet at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rizespor (all games): 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 — 1.83 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across their last 3 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 0.87 PPG lead over Rizespor (2.70 vs 1.83) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 3 away games) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rizespor in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2022, ended Fenerbahçe 6–0 Rizespor — a Fenerbahçe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 33% versus Rizespor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 50% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.28 xG and Rizespor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.507 / defence 0.935 | Rizespor attack 1.132 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.319. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.507 — their 2.28 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 42 games and Rizespor's last 6.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.82 | Draw 4.06 | Rizespor 4.89. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 3 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 100% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 7 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.28 / Rizespor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.507 / def 0.935 | Rizespor attack 1.132 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Rizespor xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe 5 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 7) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 55% chance of winning, Rizespor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.13x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 42 games and Rizespor's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.06
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.67
1.40
Rizespor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
10%
9.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
2%
47.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.40 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 6W 0D 0L from 6 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 home games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fenerbahçe's scoring rate against Rizespor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor in 67%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 0D 0L in their last 6 games (3.00 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Rizespor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 3.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Rizespor 0-6 Fenerbahçe on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Rizespor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Rizespor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Fenerbahçe, 100% for Rizespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fenerbahçe and 100% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fenerbahçe's games and 100% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 100% of Rizespor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 100% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 5-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.28 xG and Rizespor 1.40 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.51 / defence 0.94 against Rizespor attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 50%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rizespor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.83. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.