Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 2.096 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Fatih Karagümrük games / 0 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 / Gaziantep FK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 2.096 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 58% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.85x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.85x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.76
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.07
1.03
Gaziantep FK xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
50.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.03 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Pre-Season
Gaziantep FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 0-3 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.05 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.03 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 15%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.