Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kocaelispor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Eyüpspor welcome Kocaelispor to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 0D 6L at — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Kocaelispor — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kocaelispor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Kocaelispor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 38% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 48% | Kocaelispor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Kocaelispor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / defence 1.245 | Kocaelispor attack 0.853 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 42 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 28% | Kocaelispor 42%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Kocaelispor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kocaelispor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kocaelispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 20% | Kocaelispor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 28% | Kocaelispor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Eyüpspor 1.00 / Kocaelispor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / def 1.245 | Kocaelispor attack 0.853 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Kocaelispor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kocaelispor xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 30% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kocaelispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.70) and Kocaelispor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kocaelispor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kocaelispor Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.51
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.25
1.24
Kocaelispor xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.24 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 9D 24L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kocaelispor sit at 1.17 PPG from 42 outings (13W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.86 PPG, Kocaelispor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Kocaelispor have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.83 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 games (0.86 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.05 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kocaelispor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 38%, Kocaelispor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eyüpspor) and 33% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Kocaelispor in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 43% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 33% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.