Bodrum FK 3-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 36%, yet in-form Bodrum FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodrum FK (all games): 2W 0D 4L across 6 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bodrum FK's home record at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodrum FK. A 0.60 PPG lead over Adana Demirspor (1.00 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Bodrum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 33% versus Adana Demirspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 33% | Adana Demirspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.18 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.754 / defence 0.996 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.935 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.295. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Bodrum FK games / 44 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodrum FK (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 33% | Adana Demirspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Bodrum FK 1.18 / Adana Demirspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.754 / def 0.996 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.935 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Bodrum FK 3 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 34% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.75x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.94x) against Bodrum FK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.33
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.38
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.21 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 2W 0D 4L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 5L across 6 games — 0.17 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodrum FK by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Adana Demirspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodrum FK have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 0.83 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
0
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 1, Adana Demirspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 33%, Adana Demirspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bodrum FK) and 67% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 67% of games; Adana Demirspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.18 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bodrum FK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 36%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bodrum FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 33%, Adana Demirspor 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodrum FK arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.