Beşiktaş 2-4 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Göztepe travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Göztepe — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across their last 5 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG, Göztepe 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Göztepe's (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 5 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2022, ended Beşiktaş 2–0 Göztepe — a Beşiktaş win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Göztepe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Göztepe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Göztepe 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.127 / defence 1.012 | Göztepe attack 0.852 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.289. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 49 games and Göztepe's last 11.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.81 | Draw 3.98 | Göztepe 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 5 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 60% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.96 / Göztepe 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.127 / def 1.012 | Göztepe attack 0.852 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Göztepe xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Beşiktaş 2 - 4 Göztepe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Göztepe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, Göztepe a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 49 games and Göztepe's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.98
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.07
1.11
Göztepe xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.11 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 3D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.91 PPG, Göztepe on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beşiktaş's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 5 away games (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Göztepe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Göztepe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.40 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Göztepe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 3, Göztepe have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Göztepe?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Göztepe 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Göztepe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Göztepe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Göztepe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 60% of Göztepe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Beşiktaş 2-4 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.96 xG and Göztepe 1.11 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Göztepe outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Göztepe attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 20%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Göztepe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.91 PPG, Göztepe 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.