Beşiktaş 2-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beşiktaş host Ankaragücü at Vodafone Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 1, Ankaragücü 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ankaragücü in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 62% and Ankaragücü 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 57% | Ankaragücü 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.57 xG and Ankaragücü 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.999 / defence 0.723 | Ankaragücü attack 0.862 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.317. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Beşiktaş games / 21 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 20%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Ankaragücü 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Beşiktaş 50% | Ankaragücü 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Beşiktaş 1.57 / Ankaragücü 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.999 / def 0.723 | Ankaragücü attack 0.862 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ankaragücü xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü part of?
Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.00) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.95
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.39
0.82
Ankaragücü xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.82 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 10W 7D 4L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü's form line: 6W 4D 11L from 21 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ankaragücü.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ankaragücü in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 10W 7D 4L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Ankaragücü away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.10 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Beşiktaş 2-0 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ankaragücü tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Ankaragücü 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beşiktaş) and 50% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beşiktaş have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Beşiktaş's games and 70% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 50% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Beşiktaş and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Ankaragücü 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Ankaragücü 2-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.57 xG and Ankaragücü 0.82 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against Ankaragücü attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 20%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 57%, Ankaragücü 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.