Beşiktaş 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.20 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Beşiktaş 1–1 Alanyaspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 53% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 47% | Alanyaspor 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.050 / defence 1.083 | Alanyaspor attack 0.748 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.172. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 53 games and Alanyaspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.07 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.60. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.51 / Alanyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.050 / def 1.083 | Alanyaspor attack 0.748 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 48% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 53 games and Alanyaspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.33
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
20.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.95 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 23W 12D 18L from 53 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 16L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.53 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 15W 4D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 6W 10D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 21D 16L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.88 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won Beşiktaş 4-1 Alanyaspor.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Alanyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beşiktaş) and 38% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 46% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 38% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 65% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Alanyaspor attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 47%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.53 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.